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TdF SPOILER thread
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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/14/23 4:31 PM

It's definitely different this year without Roglic. Jumbo had two serious contenders to send up the road and Tadej had to cover them both.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/15/23 8:38 PM

Vingo looking better to me...

Subsequent to the failed Pog attack where the camera MC mucked up the works, seems Vingo had the answers...

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/16/23 8:08 AM

Really have to wonder how differently the stage would have played out if those motos hadn't been in the way.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/16/23 8:22 AM

thinking Vingo would have had that answer on this day. #neverknow

But perhaps Vingo took attack less seriously as far as reaction seeing the obstruction, and was glad he wasn't wrong. Attacking with fans so plentiful/deep probably risky and challenging. Would there have been room enough even if the MCs weren't riding side by side? Fans stepping in more, cause they do.

Still, the photo moto fined and banned for today's stage apparently.

Fuk-in fans, I'll say about today's stage...

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/16/23 3:09 PM

TT predictions?

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dan emery
Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 6890
Location: Maine

7/16/23 3:58 PM

I predict it will be a great race!

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 5101
Location: Nashua, NH

7/16/23 4:41 PM

That's a hard one to predict. Vingegaard seems to be getting stronger, or perhaps recovering from something the may have been bothering him earlier. There seem to be cracks forming in Pogacar's armor. Then again, I could be completely off-base. Tuesday will be an interesting day regardless; I just don't want to see them essentially tied afterward.

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/16/23 4:57 PM

These two are so closely matched I feel like it's a complete toss-up. It may come down to who deals with the rest day better.

Vingo's response today was surprising but, as you say Brian, there's no way to know if Vingegaard is getting stronger or if Pogacar is having some challenges. Tadej's attack today looked strong but it was super late to the point where it made me question whether he actually is struggling, without time bonuses available he would only have ended up in yellow if Jonas was totally cracked, which he obviously wasn't.

As Phil keeps saying, though, this race is epic with this rivalry.

I'm also noticing (compared to last year) UAE being around at the end of the last couple stages and Jumbo not. They obviously learned their lesson well.

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 5101
Location: Nashua, NH

7/17/23 4:54 AM

I question whether having teammates around at the end of a stage is much of a benefit on mountaintop finishes, when you consider that both teams are essentially doing the same thing, setting a high pace that discourages attacks. It was different when JV had Roglic there, as he was a legit threat to take yellow if either of the others faltered, so Pogacar had to defend when he attacked, allowing JV to double-team him. Yates and Kuss are too far down time-wise to pose that kind of threat, so they're just pacemakers in different jerseys. At that point, a wheel is a wheel, if it makes any difference at all.

One thing I don't understand is why Vingegaard positions himself in front of Pogacar where he constantly has to look over his shoulder in order to be ready for his attacks. It seems counterproductive.

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LeeW
Joined: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 453
Location: near Baltimore, MD

7/17/23 5:26 AM

I'm just very happy to watch a competitive and close TdF!

After the early season start that Pog had, including spanking Vingo several times at Paris-Nice, I was fearing a runaway at this Tour where the winner was never in doubt from week one.

I was also distressed for the competition when Carapaz and Mas went out early. While Carapaz had health issues this spring, he has quite respectable palmares, including Olympic road race champion, winner of the Giro a couple years back, and podiums at the Vuelta, TdF, and Giro, and he had a potentially better team around him this year. Although Mas doesn't have the same palmares, he had been able to follow Pog in the past, after Roglich and other GC guys were dropped (although he could never manage to effectively attack).

Although I'm not a fan of Ineos, I've even enjoyed watching young Rodriguez battle the more established stars and add some excitement.

For me, it's been a refreshing watch so far with a number of promising new faces making some impact.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/17/23 8:53 AM

When was the last time we had a white jersey kid also in yellow so much? Easy to forget POG's age until he falls outta the Yellow back to a White jersey that was on loan to the 2nd place young-un. ;)

As far as team strong men up front on MTN driving the pace goes. It seems like one day it's Jumbo, next UAE. Either one is helping both GC contenders equally. Which ever is doing the deed.

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/17/23 1:39 PM

Agreed it doesn't truly matter which team is driving, I just noted that UAE's ability to do so is markedly different this year. I feel like the whips were cracked after last year's race.

Pog has been in white something like 60 consecutive days....that's a record that will likely stand for a very long time.

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dan emery
Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 6890
Location: Maine

7/17/23 4:53 PM

Great weekend for young Spanish guys named Carlos. C. Rodriguez, 22, rode great. C. Alcarez, 20, won Wimbledon in an incredible match. The kid is an artist on the court.

I suspect the Tour comes down to whose legs hold out best at the end of an all out Tour. Uphill tt followed by 2 mountain stages, yikes.

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 5101
Location: Nashua, NH

7/18/23 9:56 AM

WOW! Just WOW!

I half expected that Vingegaard would make some gains today, but nothing like this! Jonas is obviously getting stronger and Pogacar didn't look like himself. It will be really interesting to see what happens in the mountains tomorrow.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/18/23 11:02 AM

TT

Holy Smokes Vingo! Jeeze...

When a TT bike is an advantage going uphill, that is scary. ;)

When 2nd fastest guy catches guy 2 min start ahead, and 1st place near catches 2nd/Pog, my word!

Made for a non boring TT, uphill helps that too I guess.

Let's see how bad Pog spanks Vingo on the MTN stage tomorrow.

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/18/23 11:27 AM

Yeah, nothing substantive to add about today...just holy crap. Vingo put it all on the table. I literally said 'wow' out loud when he took off from the start house, you could tell from the first pedal rev that he was going to give it everything he had.

Will he pay for that tomorrow in terms of recovery? Unlikely but we really haven't seen Jonas have a bad day, I would not call the couple times he couldn't answer the initial speed of Pogacar 'bad days', he may be due.

Even with the opening of the gap to nearly two minutes, it says a lot that no one thinks this race is in the bag. UAE is going to have to try something big, though, and hope for some luck.

re: Pogacar not looking like himself. I dunno, he posted the second best time and beat the snot out of WvA by nearly as much as he got beat by Vingegaard.

Bike change doesn't seem like a good idea in hindsight, unless they knew for sure he was at least that much slower (10-15s) climbing on the TT bike.

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/18/23 1:35 PM

The Maillot Jaune gives you wings....


quote:
Vingegaard said: “It was one of my best days on the bike ever. I think at one point I started doubting my power metre because it was showing so high a number. We prepared for this so long and we knew I was in really good shape and all the hard work paid off today.”


https://www.cyclingweekly.com/racing/jonas-vingegaard-i-was-riding-so-well-i-thought-my-power-meter-was-over-reading

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/18/23 2:06 PM

When I ran a PT wheel, I always questioned the data. No way it could be that low. ;)

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/19/23 10:08 AM

The opposite of what I think may occur keeps occurring..

Pog; Fall, pooped, or both??

Fall was on the 'wrist' side...

Anyone else feel less wimpy for their cassette choices seeing the pie plates on these Pro bikes. ;)


Notice the abdominal kinesio tape on Pog on that last grade to the finish??

Pog 7:35 to Vingo, wow! Again, after yesterday this is exactly the opposite of what I thought possible. I thought certainly Vingo more likely to bonk on today's stage..

Man, those guys killed themselves today!

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/19/23 10:58 AM

At this point you have to wonder about the early season crash impacting his training. And today's crash of course.

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Sparky
Joined: 08 Dec 2003
Posts: 19083
Location: PDX

7/19/23 11:11 AM

"wonder about the early season crash impacting his training"

What I expected going in was Pog riding into form this week and spanking competition.

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dan emery
Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 6890
Location: Maine

7/19/23 3:05 PM

I have no idea what the explanation is, but I could see Pog’s early season crash affecting overall fitness for a long, hard Tour.

OTOH, while I was rooting for Pog, Vingo may just be a significantly superior Tour rider. Who would have thought he could tt like that (bike change? don’t need no stinkin’ bike change), let alone at the end of an exhausting Tour, let alone climb like he did the next day. He weighs 130 lbs, and out tts WvA. Not sure we have seen anything like that.

Hope they meet at full strength in the future!

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Brian Nystrom
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Posts: 5101
Location: Nashua, NH

7/19/23 6:38 PM

When the showed Pogacar on one of the early climbs, he didn't look good. He had dark circles under his eyes and a vacant stare, and just looked exhausted and worried. He must of known at that point that his legs weren't good.

While I'm more of a Vingo fan, I have nothing against the Pog and it's a shame to see him collapse so completely. Vingo seems to be getting stronger as the Pog wears down. I hoped he would be able to at least put up a fight and keep it close enough to be interesting. The only question now is whether he'll recover enough to make it to Paris in second place or if he'll continue to falter and Yates will have to take up the mantle for the team.

For Vingo, it now comes down to "just don't do anything stupid'.

Now next year, it's going to be Vingo, the Pog, and Remco, plus the likes of Rodriguez (hopefully) and the other rising stars. Who knows, maybe Matteo Jorgenson will be in the mix. It's gonna' be FUN!

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RCoapman
Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 5141
Location: Back in the snowy homeland

7/20/23 12:06 PM

From what I heard on today's coverage the team trainers had been concerned about this all along. Pog missed an important camp and specific training due to the early season crash and yesterday, it seems, was the result.

Cycling, and all endurance sports, honestly, is a cruel, vicious, and unforgiving sport. You can work harder than anyone, do everything right, and if there is the slightest hint of bad luck that is no fault of your own you're done.

There was also speculation that Jumbo was always planning for this day, irrespective of Tadej's aforementioned crash, and that their plans for the Queen Stage were the source of Vingegaard's seemingly deliberate foreshadowing- "the tour will not be won by seconds."

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Nick Payne
Joined: 10 Jan 2004
Posts: 2626
Location: Canberra, Australia

7/20/23 1:22 PM

Pogacar keeps it real

You gotta really like his attitude to things:

https://twitter.com/will_me_be/status/1681698496863404033

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