11/4/15 10:46 PM

Today in Rochester was fantastic! High of 78d, 25d above normal. This is the warmest November day in ROC ever. There was not a cloud in the sky and it was calm most of the day. Had a great 35 mile ride.

I know that global warming is more than just warmth it also means there is greater climate variability, as last February was the Coldest February ever recorded in Rochester. I wish I knew what this means for the upcoming winter.

11/5/15 3:13 PM

I know you're just joking, but it's worth remembering that (1) local does not equal global (so warmth in one place means nothing, and some places will get colder even as the global temperature goes up); and (2) weather at a particular time does not equal climate over the whole year.

As for what the upcoming winter holds, they say El Nino is as strong as has ever been observed, which means - unfortunately - a good chance that we here in coastal New England will have another winter of lots of snow. But our coastal nor'easters are not the snowmakers for you folks up in lake-effect country, so I think your winter less predictable.

This year had highly variable temperatures here. Very cold February, warm May, cold June. Also variable precipitation, with lots of winter snow but dry enough from mid-summer on that we're well behind on yearly total.

It's gotten to over 70 4 days in a row here in Hartford. One more day tomorrow, looks like. I have worn shorts for my afternoon commute all week, and once in the morning. I didn't think that would happen again before April.

While you were enjoying your ride, I was painting my front porch. We all take advantage of the weather in our different ways.

11/5/15 3:23 PM

I remember well on a December 16th, 2001 I believe. I went out for a 30-40 miler and wound up going from Maywood to Storm King behind West Point and back. Hit 76^ as I recall. I was out all day on the bike loving it. ;)

So yeah, not sure anything is indicative of anything for surprise days. NYC turning into Neptune's Hood during Sandy OTOH. . .

11/5/15 3:46 PM

quote:

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I wish I knew what this means for the upcoming winter.

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11/5/15 5:10 PM

Around here, we just rely on the Farmers' Almanac, published in Lewiston, Maine, which forecasts a wicked winter for the NE:

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2016-winter-forecast/

It's all good with me, I love winter and the more snow the better. I love to XC ski and snowshoe, and now I can also hop on my CT and do climbs on Mallorca or Italy courtesy of Smelly.

Last edited by dan emery on 11/5/15 5:33 PM; edited 1 time in total

11/5/15 5:24 PM

"I love winter and the more snow the better. "

2002-2009 in TN, and maybe 6 snowfalls here since...

I miss the snow, there I said it. And I don't even ski anymore. I may have to get to Hood for some trekking. It looks like it is actually getting snow already this year. Last year was snow pack anorexia it seems..

11/5/15 5:46 PM

Snowshoeing is great. You can get a great workout or take it easy. Doesn't take any technical expertise. You can go anywhere.

11/5/15 5:52 PM

not sure how my healed tib/fib Plateau knee would feel about that. ;)

11/5/15 5:53 PM

Snowshoeing is great. You can get a great workout or take it easy. Doesn't take any technical expertise. You can go anywhere.

11/5/15 7:50 PM

I agree on the "go anywhere" part about snowshoes.

But for anyone who's half way proficient on skis, snowshoeing on easy terrain is like riding a 30lb mtn bike with 2 1/2" knobby tires on smooth pavement. Every step, I keep thinking "where's the glide?"!

11/6/15 11:43 PM

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html

11/7/15 10:19 AM

Anyone honest and knowledgable in forecasting will tell you longer than a couple days is just a best guess. NOAA forecast based on trends, patterns, and predictions. The actual chance of being correct three months out is in the single digits. The Farmers Almanac is a fun alternative