9/26/15 7:56 PM

So from what I can gather the recall of some half a million cars is a US figure only (according to the link in the original post) is the recall also global and if it is, assume that figure will be significantly higher than that.

9/27/15 12:56 PM

If VW were a domestic auto manufacturer in name, I don't think that there is any way they wouldn't be able to survive this. Look at what's happened in the past.

But VW is a foreign company, and that gives it another whole problem to deal with. Exactly how that's going to work, I don't know. I expect that if it were Honda, it would be a "through a goose" situation and they'd be gone. We'll see with VW.

I own a Y2K New Beetle (gasoline). It's still remarkably good. I didn't buy it new, of course. Point is, the thing still works, and I expect it will continue to work for a while yet. When it dies, it will be worth nothing .

If I had purchased any VW product recently, though, I would be really pissed. Even the gas-powered VWs are going to take a hit on the used market, as people try to figure out whether the company will survive in the US and whether they can trust the details on VWs in general.

9/28/15 11:45 AM

> If VW were a domestic auto manufacturer in name, I don't think that there is any way they wouldn't be able to survive this. Look at what's happened in the past.

Do you mean in terms of the size of the company?

From a different perspective, the fact they are not a large, U.S. headquartered corporation, employing many American citizens, including corporate executives, like General Motors, it is an easy decision for the U.S. government agencies to pursue criminal charges in addition to levying heavy fines.

For instance, how many General Motors executives have faced criminal charges for the faulty ignition switch that killed 124 people? Answer: none.

9/28/15 2:57 PM

My car is at the garage for a damage-assessment, having been hit by a careless Alfa Romeo friday night, might be a fatal hit.
As I read here somewhere " they all cheat" and a Jumbo taking off once might produce more toxic emissions than a years VW-production. Pointing at others is always bad debating, sorry.
Tax system here makes it a no-brainer to choose for a diesel when you drive more than 15.000 miles a year and have to pay it yourself as I do.
FYI driving in an economical way I get 67 mpg in daily commute and 57 mpg on average (small Renault Twingo 1.5 dCi ).

Would love to be able to drive something electric, even though I strongly doubt the total process there is really clean.

9/28/15 7:32 PM

Fully loaded jumbo jets get better than 50 passenger miles per gallon, gate to gate.

Of course they aren't all modern, they aren't all fully loaded, and they don't have catalytic converters either.

9/30/15 1:45 PM

In terms of the financial impact on VW, the government enforcement actions may not be the worst of it. Some class-action lawsuits have already been filed, and I just got an email invite to a litigation conference for plaintiff attorneys. The lead speakers are lawyers from big and experienced asbestos and class-action plaintiff firms. This is going to get ugly.

The impact on future sales? Painful to consider.

9/30/15 2:23 PM

Buy backs and punitive damages, actions for diminished value as a direct result of fraud and damages.... Fines, I think will be the least of their issues financially if I am to guess.

9/30/15 3:58 PM

So does this mean that the VW diesel cars would fail state emissions testing? If so, wouldn't it be illegal to drive them?

9/30/15 4:05 PM

quote:

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So does this mean that the VW diesel cars would fail state emissions testing?

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9/30/15 4:19 PM

I don't know exactly how the laws read, but I have heard that California will require fixes before allowing the cars to be re-registered. That would seem to have some teeth.

To me (who does not work in this area) the potential for punitive damages seems mind-boggling. Intentionally causing cancer, hastening global warming, etc. And the size of the company is another relevant factor. I suspect a prime topic at the conference will be picking a jurisdiction with the least restrictions on punies.

The lead lawyer in the Maine class action is a guy who was a year ahead of me in law school. He is a superb lawyer who normally handles complex commercial disputes, not consumer cases. I was at a local alumni function with him Friday and was hoping for an update, but no such luck. His press comments use some variation of "cheat" about 3 times per sentence. This is going to be a zoo.

9/30/15 4:55 PM

"California will require fixes before allowing the cars to be re-registered. That would seem to have some teeth. "

Oregon as well. But you could have up to 4 years on a new car from original delivery. But what happens to the new ones someone may try you buy to get a deal? How long before DMV stops new registrations on cars that can't pass as a known now. Wonder if the State law makers are already working on this one??

9/30/15 5:34 PM

So the trip for the engine management system was the steering input? With no input from the steering it kept the engine in a clean/low performance mode?

Bad very bad, but at the same time, brilliant. My car was tested in AZ and I think I remember the car being tied down and all the worker did was drive the snot out of it on a set of rollers with the steering very still but not locked in. My cars in AZ were all manual trannies.

edit to add a link to a test. The tester is lousy though. A turbo car won't care what the altitude is they adjust to any pressure changes.

https://youtu.be/GhvI2oeBPtY

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9/30/15 5:52 PM

For all practical purposes and as far as state testing, the cars pass existing tests. It's just that the existing test isn't good enough to get around VW's trick.

It's now up to the states that require emissions testing to decide how to handle whether to accept the results of the flawed emissions test. California seemingly will not allow VW diesels to re-register. Others may follow.

10/2/15 3:29 PM

I'm probably simplifying, but I think it was like this:
RPM's elevated?
Speed zero?
No steering inputs?
If so, an emissions test is underway.

I wonder if the short term fix for VW is a software change that forces the engine permanently into the low emissions mode. I guess it depends on that does to the drivability and mileage.

10/2/15 5:27 PM

The trick was simple. The cars have a steering angle sensor. most do. If it detects no inputs for x seconds at y speed, it knows its on a dyno. Dyno map runs.

The big issue isn't whether the cars are polluting, its that they'll likely run like crap with the mandated flash. And resale takes a giant hit. But Jeep has to buy back Cherokees, Toyota pickups, yada...VW is different only because they outright cheated, which apparently will turn out to be not just them.

10/4/15 9:05 AM

The point of my question above is whether the cars would pass emissions testing if the defeat device was disabled. If, in fact, the cars would fail, then they can't be driven.

10/4/15 10:22 AM

If, in fact, the cars would fail, then they can't be driven.

That shifts the real burden onto the consumer; how will they get to work, etc. Hopefully that's a non-starter. They'll get a pink sticker with a deadline.

I half-way get the mileage / emissions problem. Being diesel, no spark plugs, the engine is more efficient when the cylinder is hotter or cooler. The same efficiency condition creates more nitrogen oxides and so on.

My prediction is the recall will be new firmware that takes away the mileage. A very inexpensive fix and one that will be unpopular.

Discounting lawyers' creativity, owners don't have a suit because they bought the cars for the mileage. What will they sue for "future decreased mileage?" The problem hasn't happened yet.

The government might be able to sue for air quality.

Nobody died, false advertising, breech of regulations, no executive jail time, corporate fines at most.

Upset news reporting and voters, no election reform, no change. Republicans out voted, won congress. (Bloomberg story)

A radio news feature this week about unapproachable firmware in cars highlighted a regulatory issue. Cross-thread drift, regulation and congressional impasse.

10/6/15 8:45 PM

Another interesting twist is long term resale value of vehicles like this doesn't suffer much. Of course they do short term but it's hard to prove significant monetary damage.

10/7/15 7:32 AM

I guess what VW did was to set up their software to engage emission controls only when the car was being tested for emissions. The easy fix would be to keep the emission controls engaged under all conditions. The cars would then be permitted to be driven. But that will probably result in much lower mileage than claimed.

Sounds like a strong case for consumer fraud. But as others have pointed out, damages may be hard to quantify. Car owners may receive compensation for their additional fuel costs going forward, but there's no way of calculating that with any precision. They may be stuck with whatever they can prove is the diminished value of the car from lower mileage numbers.

it's going to cost VW plenty just to either pull their TDI technology from the market or suffer reduced sales from lower mileage and performance ratings.

Wotta mess.

10/7/15 8:45 AM

Here we go - how much power VW TDI loses with emission controls:


http://www.businessinsider.com/vw-diesel-engines-power-lose-without-cheating-software-2015-10

10/7/15 12:52 PM

Aha, 4 wheel dynamometer vs standard 2 wheel testing; another way it senses being tested.

Thanks for the link.

It's a little funny even Consumer Reports got pwned by VW on this one, those crafty German engineers snuck one by the independent watchdogs too.

How did VW get caught? PBS Newshour 4:36 An engineer named John German for one.

10/7/15 1:07 PM

11 million cars, I am having trouble fathoming it every time I hear that. ;O

10/7/15 2:18 PM

But only 500,000 in the US. That's significant because it's not clear which other countries got the "benefit" of the doctored software. Some countries may not need it to pass their less stringent emissions standards.

10/7/15 2:37 PM

Well, according to VW, they've sold about 77000 vehicles with the emissions-fudging software in this country. They haven't yet indicated what they'll do (or be forced to do) about it, though as one friend who owns one of these vehicles commented, why would he want to have it modified to be less fuel-efficient, he'd rather keep polluting and drive more cheaply...

Edit: Just came across the following in our local equivalent of the WSJ (Australian Financial Review) - "Analysts at UBS and Societe Generale have put a price tag of between €32 billion and €35 billion as a result of Volkswagen's cheating pollution tests and the fines, legal bills and recall and repair costs it now faces."

Last edited by Nick Payne on 10/7/15 8:38 PM; edited 1 time in total

10/7/15 2:42 PM

"he'd rather keep polluting and drive more cheaply..."


I doubt VW did not take that into consideration in terms of the minimizing probability factor in the get caught scenario. ;O

Number of car out of service from accidents, floods, etc....